A week is a long time in politics

A week is usually said to be a long time in politics, in most Liberal Western democracies such as America, Europe, Australia and even in newer democracies such as Thailand, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan. Indeed the fortunes of politicians and even of political parties could experience momentous changes within this very short span of time, due to the sensitivities of politicians to the mood of the electorate. However, in totalitarian regimes such as North Korea, Mainland China, Cuba or Vietnam, politicians or political parties, once in power, shall be blessed with a status of permanency that those living in democracies could only dream about. Indeed for decades, political life in the above totalitarian regimes is as dead as civil society itself.

But not so for the last two months in Communist Vietnam. It could be said of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) that the last two months are really a long time in politics.

It appears that in two ephemeral months the CPV is no longer the monolithic, all powerful terror machine that it used to be. There are now clearly two warring factions within the same party. The reformists under the titular leadership of General Vo Nguyen Giap and former Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet. The conservatives under the titular leadership of former Secretary General Do Muoi and General Le Duc Anh.

Politically the reformists tend to turn to the West as a role model. Politically the conservatives tend to turn to China as a model citadel of Socialist paradise.

The battle lines have been drawn. The conservatives accuse the reformists of betrayal of the party which they subjectively equate to the fatherland. The reformists accuse their counterparts of corruption, selling out the national interests to the Chinese. They also accuse Le Duc Anh of falsifying his own party membership. It goes without saying that if the conservatives lost the fight this time General Le might even lose his freedom. Wherefore this will be a fight to the death, barely a couple of weeks before the Tenth Party Congress (18-25 April 2006).

The conservatives may have the upper hand tactically this time around due to their grip on the security forces and the army. However strategically, the reformists have the advantages of being younger, better educated and better positioned within the civil service. Above all they are much more numerous. After 30 years since the fall of Saigon and re-unification, a new generation of party members have been born, educated mostly in Western democracies and ready to challenge the old guard. In this clash of generations, it is easy to see who will prevail.

I believe that once the number of political dissidents, both within the ranks and outside of, a totalitarian regime, vastly exceeds the ability of the regime to build enough prisons to jail them, then the end of that regime is near. Such is the predicament of the CPV now.

Soon I hope a week will be a long time in politics in Vietnam too.

Ðằng Vân

27 March 2006